Week 7 Picks

Bama 1H -11.5

We bet Bama first half every week and ask questions later, but UTjr feels like it could be falling apart.  It would be our luck that the new Vols QB breathes life into a low key talented roster, but this is a system bet.

BC -3 (buy half pt)

Does GT get off of the mat after getting murdered last week?  They have the cheerleader type at head coach to rebound, but this isn’t complicated for me….I’m fading the team with a true freshman QB on the road & a defense that ranks last in the conference in yards per play allowed.

Projected Margin: BC -10

UCF Tulane over 70.5

I’m really itching to take Tulane +21 if it hits that number or above, but this is based on the fact that UCF’s offense has been as explosive as expected, and their defense sucks.  This program has been living in opponents’ backfield for the past 3 years, and they currently have 6 sacks on the season (vs. 6 sacks allowed).  I feel good about Tulane getting to the 30s vs this Golden Knight defense, and UCF should be able to score at will. 

Projected Total: 83

Rice -3 (buy half pt)

In Bloomgren, I trust.  Florida State’s OL has not been the same since he left Tallahassee.  Stanford’s OL hasn’t been the same since he left Palo Alto.  Rice’s OL hasn’t been the same since he arrived, they’ve gone from UMASS territory to a program that can swing for 5-6 wins this year.  MTSU got off to a horrific start but seemed to have righted the ship in recent weeks.

Coastal -3 (buy half pt)

This game screams upset.  The line sat at 5 all week, and is now steaming towards Ga Southern. Ga Southern is starting to get the triple action run game cranked up, and if there were any cracks in the Chant’s armor early in the season, they can be run on at times.  Additionally, they GA Southern defense is starting to turn the corner.  That said, I have to ride the hot team that is on a revenge tour this year, after avenging losses to Arkansas State & ULL, Coastal will look to reverse a 3 pt loss to GA Southern in 2019

Projected Margin: Coastal -7

Baylor +10

Do you trust Texas to beat any conference opponents by double digits when they are a favorite?  I don’t, and our model has this as a field goal margin.

Projected Margin: Texas -3

Marshall -17

Short & Sweet: Marshall is currently kicking ass and taking names, their defense is playing lights out, and they might have their best QB post-Cato.  FAU has an impressive win over Charlotte, but this is a momentum play.

Projected Margin: Marshall -23.5

Wake Forest VT over 68

VT 3-1 vs the over with average margin of 15.4 pts above total

Wake Forest 3-1 vs the overage with average margin of 10.6 above total

In college basketball, we do very well betting trends with totals, and taking the same angle here with a number below 70.

Projected Total: 76

Previously posted:

Air Force -7

South Carolina +7

One thought on “Week 7 Picks

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: