Week 5 Picks

NC State UVA over 60

NC State overs have been money so far this season, as the Wolfpack continues to show their affinity for explosive offense, and coverage busts in the secondary.   Do not mistake this UVA football team with their basketball team, they have weapons across the board and don’t mind getting up and down the field.  NC State is +20pts avg margin above their totals so far, while UVA is +10.5.  For comparison, the Ole Miss (+22.8) vs Bama (+11.5) total is sitting at 70+ and being forecast to be played in a hurricane.

Projected total: 68.5

Bama 1H -13

Speaking of Bama, we bet Bama 1H every single week, take our 1 or 2 losses per season, and are happy with our 9 or 10 wins.  For more, see previous weeks.

FIU -5

“I swear to God, if Butch Davis doesn’t play his stud true freshman QB, Stone Norton”……that’s really the entire analysis for this game.  MTSU is winless, FIU is winless, but FIU found the QB of their future in the 2nd half of the Liberty game, and for some reason Butch will not announce a starter.  If Stone doesn’t start, we’re absolutely fucked.   Play. With. Caution.

Projected margin: FIU -10.5

UTSA +35

As discussed in previous weeks, BYU is loaded and I completely whiffed on my preseason analysis of the Cougars.  Wilson is an absolute stud, the weapons at WR are much better than expected, and the loss of Bushman didn’t crush them.  The program is loaded with 24 year old post-mission Mormons and a bunch of Samoans, they are built to smash.  And they’ve been smashing everyone this season.  This pick is all about the UTSA defense, which has already accumulated 40+ TFL & 7 INTs this season, despite giving up 28.5 per game. This feels like a 52-7 BYU massacre, but our model is spitting out a 28 pt margin.  With such a large variance, and prospects of a 5 TD margin backdoor cover, I’m playing UTSA while barfing on the side.  Consider in a teaser if you’re not brave enough to tail.

Projected margin: BYU -28.5

BC +7 (buy pts)

Death, taxes, and fading Nard Ball as a big road favorite.  This will be a hideous game, and simply too many points for two teams with little variance.  The alarming thing about Pitt is that they cannot run the ball after years and years of great RBs.  It’s hard to see BC establishing much of anything on the ground, and this could be one of the few college totals that goes under a projected 40 spot….hence the home underdog. 

Projected margin: Pitt -1.5

Temple -3 (buy pts)

We don’t know much about Temple, but we know Navy has fallen off with the loss of Malcolm Perry and some key defensive contributors.  Temple has Russo back at QB, and traditionally has one of the more physical defenses in the G5.  Temple has won the previous two meetings, and it feels like the variance in the two programs has only grown.  Navy has yet to average more than 4 yards per carry in any of their contests this season, and this seems like the wrong week to dial it up. 

Projected margin: Temple -10.5

Saturday Morning Additions

UF A&M Over 59

Notre Dame 1H -11

South Carolina -13

Season totals: 16-4-1

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