Week 4 Picks

Iowa State +7.5

We saw things last week from Spencer Rattler that we haven’t seen from an OU QB since Trevor Knight, with turnovers and a very unsettled demeanor in the pocket.  Iowa State has a unique scheme on the defense that should give a struggling OU OL problems.  There are certain programs that you do not bet against as home underdogs, and Iowa State is one of them.

Oh, and it’s Brocktober, so Purdy is going off.   Sprinkle a little Iowa State ML if you’re feeling froggy

Predicted Margin: Iowa State 0.5

NC State +14

NC State Pitt Over 46

We can sit here and give you the reasons why NC State will not only cover, but also a live dog for the outright upset.  Or we can just remind you that Nard Ball is the Michigan State of ACC football, you always fade them as multi-touchdown in conference favorites.  Look for NC State’s two explosive RB’s to warp Pitt’s defensive schemes like no other backs they’ve seen this year. 

On the total, NC State has absolutely smashed both of their overs this year with explosive offensive plays and a less than desirable defense.  Until further notice, NC State totals should at the very least be in the mid 50s, and 46 is too much value to pass up.

Predicted Margin: Pitt by 3

Air Force +7.5 (buy half point)

Air Force will be without their starting QB, but after 2 games of play, can we say that Navy even has a starting QB?  There is a popular narrative that teams with games played dominate teams playing their first game….and rightfully so.  But this is your ordinary NCAAF matchup, this is a service academy rivalry game….at altitude.  There is nothing I’ve seen to suggest Navy is capable of beating anyone with a pulse by two possessions, take the Air Force here.

Predicted Margin: Air Force by 5

Boston College +14.5

BC looked like hot, wet trash against Texas St, but that wasn’t your father’s Texas State.  Everything in this matchup suggests that UNC will go on the road and dominate, but our numbers show an overreaction to that bad Texas State game.  UNC hasn’t played since their egg against Georgia Tech.

Predicted Margin: UNC -6

TCU +10.5

Does TCU start their stud QB Max Dugg Dog, or do they roll out the walk on QB again? Can Texas stop any Big 12 offense with a pulse?  I love Sam Ehlinger and those Texas WR’s, but they look a lot more like Texas Tech and a traditional Texas team.  Double digits is too heavy of a spread for a Texas defense that hates stopping their opponent’s offense.

Predicted Margin: Texas -3

BAMA 1H -10

Just play Bama 1H every single week, and ask questions later. For more, please review last week’s Bama’s 1H play.

Other Thirsty Mangus personal play underdogs that don’t count for this purpose

Albilene Christian (+32) – fade triple option teams on more than 4 TDs

Missouri (+11) – UTjr’s QB absolutely sucks, and Missou features one of the best defenses that no one ever talks about

Underdog ML parlay

Iowa State & NC State (+1875)

Last week: 4-0

Season totals: 9-4-1