Week 3 Picks

Kansas State +28

Let’s get this out of the way…..Kansas State’s secondary looked horrible against Arkansas State.  Defensive backfields that struggle against Arkansas State, do not have rebound games against Oklahoma.  You have to feel good about Oklahoma’s ability to move the ball in this game……but, how will the defense look? They gave up 48 points in last year’s loss to Kansas State, and must still prove they’ve replaced Murray & Redmond in the front seven. 

28 points is a lot of points for a redshirt freshman QB making his first start against a conference foe (with a true freshman LT), against an opponent that beat Oklahoma last year.

Predicted Margin: OK by 17

Alabama 1H -17

Saban treats his season opener opponents like a nail, and just pounds them into oblivion.  Missouri’s churn is well documented, and while I like the new coach’s potential long-term, this is the worst possible under.  Saban loves to take his foot off of the gas in the 2nd half, so we’ll try to avoid the backdoor cover with a 1st half play

Predicted Margin: Bama by 20 at half

Army +14 (buy the hook)

There is a lot to like about Cincinnati, including the fact that their defensive line has the ability to stop a service academy triple option. But, this feels more like the Army, with NFL talent at RB & TE, and a defense that seems to be as nasty (and disciplined) as ever. Army has gone to Michigan, Oklahoma, etc, it’s hard to imagine them being unsettled in Nippert Stadium. Both teams want to run the ball and control the clock, both teams have very solid defenses, this just feels like too many points for a team playing like Army right now.

Predicted Margin: Cincinnati by 9

Syracuse +7.5

For a 2nd week, we’re going back to the well with the fighting Dino Babers.  It feels so wrong….a much improved GT team coming off of two respectable performances, with an emerging star at QB.   On the other side, Syracuse’s OL absolutely refuses to block the opponents standing in front of them, and it’s only a matter of time before they’re pulling a WR to play QB after the 3rd stringer gets killed.  All of that said, GT’s talented young QB still has freshman decision making, and the Syracuse defense has been incredibly resilient despite the offense.  If GT’s QB can protect the ball, I can see the Jackets pulling away, but the current spread is simply too far from our model’s predicted margin

Predicted Margin: Syracuse by 0.5

UCF ECU o77

“I will not play totals, I will not play totals, I will…not…” 

:checks ECU 2019 defensive stats:

:sees UCF as potent as ever:

:remembers ECU has a stud QB of their own:
:clear skies and 80 degree weather:

It’s always fun to cheer for a shootout. UCF should put up 50 with ease, let’s hope ECU can find the end zone once per quarter. 

Last week: 2-2 Season: 5-4
ML Upsets: 1-0

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