Week 2 Picks

Syracuse +21.5

This really has nothing to do with Syracuse, whose OL plays like they absolutely hate their QB.  Dungy might be a future NFL back up, but it’s tough to put up film when the defense is treating you like a nail on every possession.  While Syracuse’s defense showed some life against a potent UNC offense, this pick has more to do with the opponent.  Pittsburgh has beaten two conference opponents by more than 3TD’s twice since 2015.  Nard Ball is about playing good defense and punting.  I’m high on Pittsburgh this year, and can see them contending with UNC & Notre Dame for 2nd in the league, but they are the UVA basketball of college football, they are the Michigan State of the ACC…..historically, they do not blow anyone out in conference.  Projected margin: Pitt – 12.5

UCF -7 (buy the hook)

UCF is everything that FSU should be…..fast……talented……successful.  Georgia Tech is way ahead of schedule transitioning from the triple option to modern football, but Geoff Collins is still their coach.  Georgia Tech has the advantage in playing a game last week, and their redshirt freshman QB looks like the real deal.  But, let’s not pretend like Florida State is in the same ballpark as UCF, this will be a game where UCF’s hockey shifts at WR/RB takes a toll on the Georgia Tech defense.  UCF’s defensive line and secondary will put tremendous stress on a QB playing in his 2nd career game.  Projected margin: UCF – 17.5

App St Marshall over 59 

Two explosive and efficient offenses vs. two group of 5 defenses.  We missed App State o59 last week, we’ll give their defense one more chance to suck in what feels like a shootout (unless we get sniped by the weather and/or COVID)  Projected total: 68

Louisville -2.5

The big worry with this pick is the Cardinal OL.  Western Kentucky has one of the best DE pairs in the nation, and they camped in the Cardinal backfield in week 1…..Miami’s DL should enjoy similar success.  The big question mark lies behind that Miami DL, with their LBs constantly out of place & missing tackles last week against UAB.  Louisville has far too much speed at the skill positions to miss tackles in space.  On the other side of the ball, Miami’s OL didn’t look all that impressive against a decent UAB defensive line.  King gives them some juice, but he really struggled hitting the deep and intermediate passes in his first game back.  He also exposed his body far too often in the open field, and will need to learn to get down or out of bounds to make it through a P5 season.  Miami stuck the RB on every single read option in week 1, so look for them to try to hit a couple of big 3rd down/red zone runs with King to go off tendency (could be a good play in DK Fantasy).  This feels like a back and forth game, so get ready to straddle the live play.   Projected margin: Louisville -9

Last Week (3-3)

Hits                                                                               Misses

Coastal Carolina +7                                                    Iowa St. -12.5

Coastal Carolina ML +225                                         Coastal v Kansas u56.6

Charlotte +17                                                              App State Charlotte o59

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